Bitcoin (BTC) price closed March in an indecisive manner, as short-term holders conflicted with long-term investors. The upcoming reciprocal tariffs from the United States this week have caused mixed reactions from global investors amid concerns of possible U.S. recession.

As the second quarter of 2025 begins, much of crypto investors’ attention has shifted to an anticipated correlation between Bitcoin and Gold (XAU). Furthermore, Gold price recorded palpable gains since December whilst BTC price and the wider altcoin market were trapped in bearish sentiment.

Is the 2025 Bitcoin Rally Over?

According to Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, Bitcoin price is signaling a potential correction below $60k. Thompson predicts that Bitcoin price will be trapped in a bearish environment akin to the 2022 market outlook.

“I could see us going back to a five handle by the end of the year,” Thompson noted.

According to Thompson, the recent announcement from the White House on the creation of a strategic BTC reserve and regulatory framework from Congress is a sell-the-news event. 

“I don’t think it happens quickly, which is why it would be very painful and shocking to people because nothing about the current market conditions is very volatile, with big liquidations and crashes. It’s this sort of different market environment, a slow grind down that is almost more unbearable for people because they’re like, ‘Is it over? Is the bottom in?” Thompson added.

Bigger Picture

Considering the diminishing returns for Bitcoin over the years, technical analysis suggests a potential parabolic rally before the end of this year. Moreover, Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not reached a peak of 90 in the past year as observed during the previous three major bull markets.

Additionally, long-term investors, led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), have continued to accumulate more Bitcoins to hedge against inflation and market uncertainty.